US tariffs: where to redirect exports of wine, spirits and cosmetics

After the US Supreme Court struck down the "reciprocal" tariffs on 20 February 2026, most European products have paid a total duty in the United States generally capped at 10% since 24 July, but French sales of wine, spirits and cosmetics there have already fallen sharply. The quickest relays are markets where a trade agreement is in force: the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, South Korea and, since 1 May 2026, Mercosur. Mexico, India and Indonesia will follow between late 2026 and 2027; the Gulf and Africa call for more cautious qualification.

Which US customs duties apply to European products in October 2026?

On 20 February 2026, in Learning Resources v. Trump, the Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA, an economic emergency powers law, did not allow the President to impose customs duties (A&O Shearman, 27 February 2026). A 10% surcharge based on Section 122 took over from 24 February to 24 July 2026, when it expired (UHY, 24 July 2026).

Since 24 July, so-called Section 301 duties have targeted 60 economies, accounting for 99.4% of US imports (UHY). For the European Union, they apply at 10% net of the MFN duty, the base duty that the United States applies to every WTO member: the total therefore does not exceed 10% as a general rule (Global Trade Alert, 24 July 2026). Exemption lists exist: the actual rate must be checked product by product.

Wine, spirits and cosmetics are not subject to the Section 232 sectoral duties, which hit steel and aluminium at 50% and cap automotive products, patented medicines and certain furniture at 15% for the EU (CFR, 17 September 2026). Their vulnerability lies in the legal basis: a schedule decided by the US administration, not a negotiated agreement.

How far have French exports to the United States fallen?

Between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the fourth quarter of 2025, after the duties that came into force in August 2025 and the fall in the dollar, French exports to the United States fell by 47% for spirits, 39% for wine, 25% for perfumes and cosmetics and 15% for leather goods (French customs, 6 February 2026).

Over 2025 as a whole, exports of wine and spirits fell by 7.9%, to €14.3 billion. The United States remains the largest customer, with €1.9 billion of wine (−19%) and €1.1 billion of spirits (−24.9%); cognac fell by 23.8%, to €2.3 billion (Pleinchamp, based on FEVS data, 10 February 2026).

In 2025, cosmetics recorded their first decline since 2008, excluding the pandemic: €22.4 billion (−0.1%), with a fall of nearly 19% to the United States, to €2.4 billion, or €541 million less (FEBEA, 6 February 2026). In October 2025, the federation anticipated a further 21% fall in 2026, based on the assumption of a 15% surcharge that has since been replaced (franceinfo, 30 October 2025).

Yet 33,600 French companies were exporting to the United States in the second quarter of 2026, 6,200 more than a year earlier, mostly businesses with fewer than 20 employees (French customs, 7 October 2026).

Which markets are already offsetting part of the losses?

The European Union remains the bedrock for cosmetics: +4% in 2025, to €12.1 billion, or 54.3% of the sector's exports (FEBEA).

The United Kingdom applies zero duties to goods that meet the rules of origin of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (European Commission). Wine held up there in 2025 (€1.4 billion, −1.1%), unlike spirits (€203 million, −22.1%) (Pleinchamp/FEVS); cosmetics grew by 2.9% (FEBEA).

Canada removed 98% of its tariff lines as soon as CETA was provisionally applied, on 21 September 2017 (European Commission). French wine grew by 4.3% there in 2025, to €483 million (Pleinchamp/FEVS), while US wine exports to Canada plunged by 77% between 2024 and 2025, as most provinces had removed US products from their shelves (Vinetur, 15 May 2026).

Japan has applied the Economic Partnership Agreement since 1 February 2019 (European Commission), which removed the 15% duty on European wine on entry into force (BeverageDaily, 19 July 2018). French wine is stable there, at €607 million (+0.4%) in 2025.

South Korea has been linked to the EU by a free trade agreement since 1 July 2011 (JoongAng Daily, 16 September 2010). In cosmetics, it is also a competitor: Korean exports in the sector grew by 12% in 2025 (FEBEA).

What does the EU-Mercosur agreement change for these sectors?

Since 1 May 2026, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay have been removing, immediately or gradually, their duties on 91% of European exports. Before the agreement, these duties reached up to 35% on wine (European Commission, 30 April 2026) and 20 to 35% on spirits (European Commission, 28 June 2019). A first reduction has applied since 1 May to most agri-food products, including wine and spirits, and 344 European geographical indications are protected (European Commission, 30 April 2026).

The market starts from a modest base: €5.3 billion of French exports in 2025, 79% of them to Brazil; perfumes and cosmetics are among the main categories (French customs, 6 February 2026). The preference requires a statement on origin bearing the European exporter's REX number, except for consignments of €6,000 or less (Revenue, 27 April 2026).

Mexico, India, Indonesia: when will the new preferences apply?

Mexico: the modernised agreement, signed on 22 May 2026, received final approval from the Council of the EU on 14 July; it will enter into force on the first day of the second month following notification by both parties, after Mexican ratification (Council of the EU, 14 July 2026). European wine already entered duty-free; the agreement protects 568 geographical indications, 232 of them for spirits, in what is, according to spiritsEUROPE, the largest Latin American market for European spirits (Just Drinks, 26 May 2026).

India: the agreement concluded on 27 January 2026 will cut duties on wine from 150% to 75% on entry into force, then down to 20% (European Commission, 27 January 2026), and those on spirits from 150% to 40% (Just Drinks, 27 January 2026). It still has to be signed and ratified.

Indonesia: Jakarta was aiming for signature in October 2026 and implementation in early 2027 (AHK Indonesien, 24 August 2026).

Are the Gulf and Africa credible relays as early as 2026?

French cosmetics exports to the United Arab Emirates rose by 8% in 2025 (FEBEA). But the Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked for more than seven months, and on 4 October Iran was still making its reopening subject to "seven conditions" (Al Jazeera, 4 October 2026). The WTO forecasts a 15.4% fall in Middle Eastern imports in 2026 (Asharq Al-Awsat, 9 October 2026). Another handicap lies ahead: on 20 May 2026 the United Kingdom concluded a free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (King & Spalding, 3 June 2026), which the EU does not have.

In Africa, the WTO forecasts an 8.9% rise in imports in 2026 (Asharq Al-Awsat/WTO). Qualification there is done country by country and importer by importer.

How do these markets compare?

Three questions help with sorting: is a preference in force and can origin be proven? Can delivery be made at a known lead time and cost? Are there compatible importers on the ground showing a recent, dated signal, such as a new listing or the opening of sales outlets?